Obama Bounce or Evidence the the leading indicators of presidential electoral success are kicking in?
The two polls in Ohio are enough for Obama to be able to wrest control of the Buckeye state from McCain for the time being. Those twenty electoral votes move from a McCain toss up to an Obama toss up and provide the Illinois s

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Out of the eight Survey USA state polls released yesterday, none of them polled the Clinton-McCain match up. If that is indicative (and last night's results tell me that it will be), then this may be the last week that FHQ includes a Clinton map in the weekly electoral college breakdown. For this week, though, the Clinton map

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Who says change can't happen, even at the site with the most conservative electoral college methodology? I find it somewhat ironic that I, just yesterday, made light of the feasibility of a 10 point Obama margin in Virginia and today that exact number appeared in the CNN survey results. There's no sense in hiding that. Virgin

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Things are starting to settle in to place in the McCain-Obama race, or that has been the mark of the polls during July at least. No poll has come along that has fundamentally changed the averages in any state enough push it from McCain to Obama or vice versa, much less alter its distinction whether favoring the Arizona senator

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The real surprises were the deep red states that have Obama in the lead: Arizona, Arkansas and South Carolina (Yeah, I know South Carolina isn't deep red--really isn't now--but I just can't shake recent and even not so recent history in the Palmetto state.). Arizona is the shocker. I can't imagine that the Grand Canyon stat

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Another Wednesday and another look at the electoral college. Since Sunday there have been 10 new state-level polls in 10 states. And while the location of some of these polls is helpful in updating our overall outlook for some states in regard to the electoral college, the collective message to take home is that they merely con

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After the debate there was plenty to talk about last night, but the state polls released during the day yesterday and into the night/early morning were certainly noteworthy as well. In total there were 16 new polls in 14 states. And in most cases, the post-Lehman conventional wisdom prevailed. In most cases...
Florida, Michiga

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Primary season is over and the general election campaign has begun. With that change comes a change in how FHQ will be examining the electoral college. Yes, Hillary Clinton has been dropped (The polling firms forced our hand on that one.), but we are also unveiling a new map (courtesy of Paul Gurian) to track the shifts in the

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Whether you count it as two points or .1 (Only the latter is correct. The data on the former was from a question concerning which candidate would better deal with the current economic situation.), the margin in Elon's poll of North Carolina continues to be a troubling trend for the McCain campaign. Anything there favoring Obam

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Kudos to CNN for filling state polling void present since last week. Granted CNN continues to call Iowa and Minnesota swing states when they've been anything but. But hey, you don't bite the hand that feeds you, right? In addition to the North Star and Hawkeye states, there is also a new poll out in Ohio. Now that's enough t

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But the real change is in the perception of the race with Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Obama lean category. With that change Obama is now relatively safe in states totaling 260 electoral votes and as you'll see just below on the Watch List, New Hampshire is also close to joining that group as well. The two comparable categ

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I've been asked several times by folks commenting here at FHQ and colleagues here at UGA if I had any plans to phase out any of the Super Tuesday period polls. My standard answer has been no, but once we hit the conventions and get past Labor Day, the traditional general election campaign will get underway and the dynamics of

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In the wake of the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, many pundits call the Democratic nomination in favor of Barack Obama. But a resounding win last night in West Virginia indicated 1) that it was a good state for Clinton to rebound and 2) that there is still some support for a Clinton candidacy out there. A win in the M

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I don't necessarily want to reprise the post and the resulting discussion here, but I thought it was important to update Saturday's examination of the August poll movement to reflect all the data we have through August. I'm treating the Biden announcement as part of the convention. Therefore, any polls conducted prior to Aug

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So what do we have today? New Jersey is back to canceling itself out: one tight poll followed by another more typical poll. The Garden state had a similar polling combo emerge over the weekend and all its doing is getting Republicans' hopes up. Has New Jersey gotten slightly tighter in FHQ's weighted average? Yes, but as I ar

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The latter half of the week has been the time for releasing polling recently. That has made the last two Wednesday electoral college posts pretty skimpy though. Still, there were 9 new polls out in 7 states since Sunday. Of those seven states, four were already McCain states that became even more so with the addition of these p

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September closes with a lot of red on the map, but unfortunately for John McCain none of that red comes in any state that isn't already favoring him in FHQ's weighted averages. And the blue comes places the Arizona senator absolutely cannot yield. But that's pretty much par for the course for the Republican's 2008 standard

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