Search results for monthly change

Frontloading HQ: Did Obama Bounce Everywhere in June?

By jtputnam 65 days ago from http://frontloading.blogspot.com

There has been a lot of chatter since Barack Obama effectively won the Democratic nomination on June 3 about an Obama (or unity) bounce in the polls. I was--and still am--skeptical about the bounce based on semantics. As I've argued, a bounce--like those after a convention--implies that there is a sudden uptick in polling foll

Read More...

2
Zoom

Frontloading HQ: Did Obama or McCain Win July?

By jtputnam 30 days ago from http://frontloading.blogspot.com

So who won July? Well, the map looks awfully yellow (pro-McCain), but the Arizona senators gains are in states where he is already way out in front or too far behind to make much of a difference. The swing states are even allocated in terms of how many are trending toward each of the candidates. And when that sort of analysis i

Read More...

Tags: 2008 presidential election monthly change state polls weighted averages

2
Zoom

Frontloading HQ: The Pre-Convention Swoon Revisited

By jtputnam 10 days ago from http://frontloading.blogspot.com

I don't necessarily want to reprise the post and the resulting discussion here, but I thought it was important to update Saturday's examination of the August poll movement to reflect all the data we have through August. I'm treating the Biden announcement as part of the convention. Therefore, any polls conducted prior to Aug

Read More...

Tags: 2008 presidential election monthly change state polls weighted averages

1
Zoom

Frontloading HQ: Swoon? What Swoon? A Look at the Changes During Pre-Convention August

By jtputnam 11 days ago from http://frontloading.blogspot.com

Thus far there has been polling conducted in 34 states during August, including 12 of FHQ's 14 toss up states. And that is where we'll keep the focus for this examination, on those toss up states. Coming into the month, McCain held advantages in 8 toss up states totaling 86 electoral votes and Obama was ahead in 6 states with

Read More...

Tags: 2008 presidential election monthly change state polls weighted averages