Obama Bounce or Evidence the the leading indicators of presidential electoral success are kicking in?
The two polls in Ohio are enough for Obama to be able to wrest control of the Buckeye state from McCain for the time being. Those twenty electoral votes move from a McCain toss up to an Obama toss up and provide the Illinois s

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What happens to those March maps when the original data set is weighted to discount older polls is vastly different depending on which Democrat is considered the nominee. The Obama-McCain outcome was exactly the same: Obama 273-McCain 265. In the Clinton-McCain scenario, Clinton's deficit was larger than it had been in the ori

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Out of the eight Survey USA state polls released yesterday, none of them polled the Clinton-McCain match up. If that is indicative (and last night's results tell me that it will be), then this may be the last week that FHQ includes a Clinton map in the weekly electoral college breakdown. For this week, though, the Clinton map

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Things are starting to settle in to place in the McCain-Obama race, or that has been the mark of the polls during July at least. No poll has come along that has fundamentally changed the averages in any state enough push it from McCain to Obama or vice versa, much less alter its distinction whether favoring the Arizona senator

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The real surprises were the deep red states that have Obama in the lead: Arizona, Arkansas and South Carolina (Yeah, I know South Carolina isn't deep red--really isn't now--but I just can't shake recent and even not so recent history in the Palmetto state.). Arizona is the shocker. I can't imagine that the Grand Canyon stat

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Another Wednesday and another look at the electoral college. Since Sunday there have been 10 new state-level polls in 10 states. And while the location of some of these polls is helpful in updating our overall outlook for some states in regard to the electoral college, the collective message to take home is that they merely con

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Primary season is over and the general election campaign has begun. With that change comes a change in how FHQ will be examining the electoral college. Yes, Hillary Clinton has been dropped (The polling firms forced our hand on that one.), but we are also unveiling a new map (courtesy of Paul Gurian) to track the shifts in the

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Kudos to CNN for filling state polling void present since last week. Granted CNN continues to call Iowa and Minnesota swing states when they've been anything but. But hey, you don't bite the hand that feeds you, right? In addition to the North Star and Hawkeye states, there is also a new poll out in Ohio. Now that's enough t

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The latter half of the week has been the time for releasing polling recently. That has made the last two Wednesday electoral college posts pretty skimpy though. Still, there were 9 new polls out in 7 states since Sunday. Of those seven states, four were already McCain states that became even more so with the addition of these p

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Not a good half a week of polling for the McCain campaign. Some of that is the result of the direction the polling is trending (away from the Arizona senator), but most of the discrepancy is due to where the polling that came out over the last few days was conducted. The 4th of July period saw a flurry of polling in the states

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It is difficult to say definitively whether this set of polling is more favorable to McCain or Obama, but what we can discern is that, on the whole, they maintain the status quo in FHQ's weighted averages. If, for the sake of parsimony, we focus on this data and count the Rasmussen polls "with leaners," none of these state p

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In the wake of the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, many pundits call the Democratic nomination in favor of Barack Obama. But a resounding win last night in West Virginia indicated 1) that it was a good state for Clinton to rebound and 2) that there is still some support for a Clinton candidacy out there. A win in the M

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There have been 17 new polls released in 14 states since Sunday. Six of those 14 states are toss ups by FHQ's measure and one more state moved into that category with the addition of new polling. And surprisingly, it was not Nevada that moved over to McCain as a result of the Rasmussen poll that gave the Arizona senator a sli

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As the week progressed, out came several, less controversial polls, which was nice considering that the Zogby polls were the only ones bridging the gap between the pre- and post-4th of July polling. Eleven new polls in eight states further clarified the picture in race for electoral college votes between John McCain and Barack

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Recent poll movement toward McCain continues with the incorporation of twelve new polls in eleven states. Blue state margins are tightening, especially in states like Iowa and Minnesota and the toss up states have taken on a decidedly McCain tilt of late. Recently, both Colorado and Nevada have moved toward the Arizona senator.

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Ten seems to have been the magic number for polling during the last few iterations of these electoral college projections. This is now the third straight breakdown with ten new polls to add to the mix. And for the first time in a while there are some actual changes to discuss. Of the ten new polls in eight states, most fall in

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This is certainly a step back from the multitude of polls that were released during the latter half of last week, but 11 polls from 8 states isn't too shabby. And six of those eight states are toss ups here at FHQ. There is the potential, then, for some movement on both our electoral college projection map and on the Electoral

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